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20 years after Oslo: facts on the ground

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Competing claims to the holy city Jerusalem’s historic, religious and economic importance to both Israelis and Palestinians has made it a central issue in the conflict. Israel annexed the parts of Jerusalem lying east of the 1948 armistice line following the 1967 six-day war, and in 1980 declared Jerusalem to be Israel’s “eternal and indivisible” capital. The Palestinians claim East Jerusalem as the capital of a future state, arguing that the annexation is illegal under international law and violates the UN Charter and UN General Assembly Resolution 2625. The decision to defer discussing Jerusalem in the Oslo negotiations has allowed Israel to cement its territorial and demographic claim to the city over the past 20 years, making it increasingly difficult to realise a two-state solution.
2013: Israel has cemented its claim to Jerusalem The Jewish population of East Jerusalem has increased exponentially since annexation by Israel. In 1967 there were no more than a few hundred Jewish residents – today there are around 200,000. In the same period the Palestinian population has increased from 66,000 to 293,000. Israel has achieved this demographic shift by: Expropriating about a third of the land in East Jerusalem, not least by using the 1950 Law of Absentee Property to confiscate land belonging to Palestinian residents who were not present during the 1967 census, and therefore declared ‘absentees’. By 2011, 66,046 housing units had been built on this land for Israeli settlers. Unilaterally building and expanding Israeli settlements in the neighbouring West Bank, and incorporating these into Jerusalem’s boundaries. Isolating Palestinians living in annexed East Jerusalem from the rest of the West Bank, through building the Separation Barrier in 2002, introducing a complex ID and permit system, and by revoking the residency status of those who leave Jerusalem for prolonged periods. Restricting Palestinian construction in East Jerusalem. From 1999, only 11 per cent of the remaining land was to be available for the growing Palestinian population.
Stalemate over the Palestinian right of return Palestinian refugees are those who were displaced from what is now Israel during the 1948 war, or from Palestinian lands occupied or annexed after the 1967 war, and their descendants. Refugee camps are located in the West Bank, Gaza, Syria, Lebanon and Jordan. Palestinian refugees are differentiated from other refugee groups by the UN, which created a separate body for them – the United Nations Relief Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East (UNRWA). Palestinians claim that the refugees have a ‘right of return’ to the properties of which they were dispossessed during the wars. Israel refutes this position, claiming that Palestinian refugees left their homes of their own accord. Furthermore, if all refugees were to return to their former homes in Israel, a vast demographic change would result, creating a Jewish minority and ending Israel’s aspiration to be a Jewish and democratic state.
2013: Refugee numbers have doubled These opposing claims led to stalemate during the 1993 Oslo negotiations, so Israel and the Palestinian Authority (PA) left the refugee issue to be part of the final status talks. The inevitable result of this decision has been a significant increase in the Palestinian refugee population over the past 20 years, making the ‘right of return’ issue even harder to resolve: There were 2,422,514 registered refugees shortly before Oslo, in 1990; There are currently 4,919,917 registered refugees.
Settlements contravene international law Settlements are Israeli government-sanctioned, civilian communities built inside the West Bank borders, with the largest settlement comprising some 55,000 people. Settlements are illegal under international law, as specified in article 49 of the Fourth Geneva Convention, which states that no occupying power may transfer parts of its own civilian population into the territory it occupies. The illegality of settlements has also been clarified in UN Resolutions 242, 446, 465 and 478.
2013: Israeli settlements have grown five-fold The Israeli settlement population has grown five-fold in the 20 years since the Oslo Accords. Settlements are supported economically by the government through subsidies and tax breaks, and protected by the military. Even settlement outposts, which are illegal under Israeli law, are often connected to Israel’s water and electricity networks, and demolition orders are rarely enforced. In 1993, there were 110,900 Israeli settlers living in the West Bank, including East Jerusalem. By 2012 this had grown to approximately 515,000 settlers. Factoring in buildings, municipal areas, farmland, security zones and private roads, settlements control 42 per cent of West Bank land.
Interim security arrangements punctuated by frequent violent outbreaks Security arrangements were also left for later debate during the Oslo peace talks. The interim arrangement allowed for the ongoing Israeli military occupation of the West Bank and stipulated the creation of a Palestinian police force. The need for permanent security solutions on both sides has been ever more apparent over the subsequent twenty years, with frequent upsurges in violence between the Israeli military and Palestinians: The Second Intifada was a period of intensified Palestinian-Israeli violence between 2000 and 2005. During this time Israeli security forces killed 3,733 Palestinians, including 767 minors. Of these, at least 1,812 were not taking part in the hostilities when they were killed; 41 more Palestinians were killed by Israeli civilians. Palestinian militants killed 697 Israeli civilians, including 119 minors, and 314 members of the Israeli security forces. Operation Cast Lead was an armed conflict between Israel and Palestinian militants in the Gaza Strip from 27 December 2008 to 18 January 2009. During the conflict, militants fired over 750 rockets and mortars from Gaza into Israel. The rockets killed three civilians and one Israeli soldier, and wounded 182 people. Inside the Gaza Strip, 1,398 Palestinians and 6 Israelis were killed. In total 6,829 Palestinians have been killed by the Israeli Defence Forces (IDF) or by settlers since 1993. Palestinians killed 739 Israeli civilians, as well as 344 security personnel, during the same period.
2013: the Israeli occupation continues The Israeli military has retained full legal authority over most of the occupied Palestinian territory since 1967. The 1993 Oslo Accords allowed for Israel’s military occupation of the West Bank to continue as an interim security measure until final status discussions could commence. Twenty years on, the occupation continues, in contravention of international law. Palestinians living under occupation face: Restrictions on public political activity. This includes organising or participating in protests; waving flags; and printing and distributing political material. The use of ‘administrative detention’. Individuals can be detained without charge or trial for a renewable period of up to six months; 7,874 people have been detained in this way since 1993. Inappropriate use of force. The Israeli military is frequently accused of using excessive force at non-violent protests, leading to fatalities and serious injuries. In 2002, for example, 421 Palestinian civilians ‘not involved in hostilities’ were killed by the IDF. Restrictions on movement. Palestinians are prevented from moving freely by the use of checkpoints, roads forbidden to Palestinians, the Separation Barrier and other physical obstructions. House demolitions. The Israeli authorities frequently demolish Palestinian homes for administrative (i.e. if a house is built without a permit), military, or punitive reasons. Since 1993, 700 Palestinian homes have been demolished, partially demolished or sealed for punitive reasons, despite this being against international law.
After Oslo: a divided West Bank Whilst the issue of borders was raised during the Oslo peace talks, the parties could not reach a definitive agreement as to the exact international border, and thus left the issue for final status negotiations. International consensus is that the 1948 armistice line, or ‘Green Line’, should form the basis for border discussions, as this is the only legally recognised border. The Oslo Accords divided the West Bank into three distinct areas: Area A fell under the full civil and security control of the Palestinian Authority; Area B fell under the PA’s civil jurisdiction but Israeli security control; and Area C was placed under Israeli military civil and security control. Area C constitutes 62 per cent of the West Bank and is geographically contiguous, encircling Areas A and B, thus allowing the IDF to control the movement of Palestinians, and restricting municipal growth.
2013: ‘facts on the ground’ make borders near impossible to define Israel is effectively moving towards annexing Area C by encouraging the growth of settlements, building Israeli-only roads linking them together, reserving land for military firing zones, and building water and electricity infrastructure. Furthermore, in 2002 Israel began building the Separation Barrier, or Wall, the planned route of which does not follow the Green Line. This is 708 km long (the Green Line is 320 km) and will annex 9.4 per cent of the West Bank. The Wall violates international law, as discussed in the International Court of Justice’s 2004 opinion on the legality of the Wall. Thus although the 1993 Oslo Accords established the two-state solution as the internationally recognised blueprint for peace, the past twenty years have seen Israel annex or expropriate ever-greater areas of the West Bank – land designated to form a future Palestinian state. These ‘facts on the ground’ will make it more difficult to define international borders in an eventual peace agreement.

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