New START is expiring

The final remaining treaty limiting US and Russian deployment of nuclear weapons and launchers, New START, is set to expire in February 2026.

Failure to agree a renewal of New START means:

No inspections. No trust: Both sides lose the ability to verify each other’s arsenals, fuelling fear and mistrust.
An accelerating nuclear arms race: Collapse could supercharge nuclear competition at massive human and financial cost.
Global security and diplomacy in ruins just as AI and new tech raise are accelerating nuclear risks.

With swift action, pragmatism can still prevail. 

Even if a full renewal isn't politically possible an informal agreement should be reached quickly to maintain New START limits on nuclear deployment after the treaty expires, including voluntary agreement to maintain transparency and verification measures.

The global nuclear arms control picture is bleak

Abandoned diplomacy

The "Iran Deal": The 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), an agreement designed to limit Iran’s nuclear capabilities in exchange for sanctions relief, collapsed after the U.S. withdrawal in 2018 under President Trump. Israel's attacks on Iran, followed by U.S. strikes risk completely derailing the possibility of talks on a new agreement resuming, 

China talks: The US, Russia, and China are not engaging in serious arms control dialogue, allowing nuclear threats to grow unchecked.

A paralysed multilateral system

The United Nation's Security Council, responsible for maintaining international peace and security, has seen permanent member states wielding vetoes to thwart de-escalatory measure in conflicts involving nuclear states, and norms around rules of war and human rights are routinely broken with impunity by members.

The Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW) which bans nuclear weapons entirely, has been signed by 93 countries and ratified by 70, yet nuclear-armed states refuse to engage

Opaque global nuclear decision-making

China and DPRK's strict state control over information and defence budgets shields nuclear programs from public and global scrutiny.

The unofficial status of Israel's nuclear programme, also serves to shield it from monitoring, and is a driver of escalating Middle East tensions.

The culture of secrecy could spread rapidly: as New START expires, and with prospects of a U.S.-Iran deal rapidly diminishing, a world with no oversight of nuclear arsenals becomes increasingly likely.