#OneFuture > Rebuilding nuclear guardrails

Nuclear arms control is crumbling.

Without action, we are heading toward a dangerous future:

A world without limits on nuclear weapons.

Time is running out for a New START

The final remaining treaty limiting US and Russian deployment of nuclear weapons and launchers, New START, is set to expire in February 2026.

With the clock ticking, talks to replace it, simply aren't happening. Amid war in Ukraine and Palestine and rising tensions, diplomacy is frozen, while weapons spending explodes.

What this means:

• No inspections = no trust: Without New START, both sides lose the ability to verify each other’s arsenals, fuelling fear and mistrust.
• An accelerating nuclear arms race: The collapse could supercharge nuclear competition at massive human and financial cost.
• Global security and diplomacy in ruins just as AI and new tech raise nuclear risks that require urgent multilateral cooperation to tackle.
   

Pragmatism can prevail

Even if a full renewal isn't politically possible an informal agreement should be reached to maintain New START limits on nuclear deployment after the treaty expires, including voluntary agreement to maintain transparency and verification measures.

A global crisis, requiring collective action

Abandoned diplomacy

The "Iran Deal": The 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), an agreement designed to limit Iran’s nuclear capabilities in exchange for sanctions relief, collapsed after the U.S. withdrawal in 2018 under President Trump. Israel's attacks on Iran, followed by U.S. strikes risk completely derailing the possibility of talks on a new agreement resuming, 

China talks: The US, Russia, and China are not engaging in serious arms control dialogue, allowing nuclear threats to grow unchecked.

A paralysed multilateral system

The United Nation's Security Council, responsible for maintaining international peace and security, has seen permanent member states wielding vetoes to thwart de-escalatory measure in conflicts involving nuclear states, and norms around rules of war and human rights are routinely broken with impunity by members.

The Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW) which bans nuclear weapons entirely, has been signed by 93 countries and ratified by 70, yet nuclear-armed states refuse to engage

Opaque nuclear decision-making

China and DPRK's strict state control over information and defence budgets shields nuclear programs from public and global scrutiny.

The unofficial status of Israel's nuclear programme, also serves to shield it from monitoring, and is a driver of escalating Middle East tensions.

The culture of secrecy could spread rapidly: as New START expires, and with prospects of a U.S.-Iran deal rapidly diminishing, a world with no oversight of nuclear arsenals becomes increasingly likely.