Dear friends,

The year has begun on a deeply troubling note. International law, long regarded as the bedrock of global peace and security, is being challenged in ways we have not seen before by some of the most powerful countries in the world.

My fellow Elders and I published a statement condemning the US’ illegal abduction of President Maduro from Venezuela on 3 January, in clear violation of the UN Charter.

If left unchecked, the trajectory we are on risks ushering in an era defined by unilateralism, geopolitical instability, and, quite frankly, war. It is imperative that we protect and strengthen the rules-based international system that was developed after the Second World War, with the UN at its heart. These agreements and frameworks have helped manage risk, limit escalation and preserve stability for the past 80 years, and are still vital today.

One such test comes next month, when the world will face a historic and dangerous milestone: the expiration of New START (the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty) between the US and Russia.  If it were to lapse without anything to replace it, this would remove the final guardrails on US and Russian nuclear arsenals, imperilling our collective security. This is not happening at a moment of low nuclear risk; on the contrary, the threat from nuclear weapons is at its highest in decades.

The world’s nuclear stockpiles today total over 12,000 warheads and hold the power to destroy civilisation many times over.  All nuclear states are modernising or expanding their arsenals, and growing international instability is leading many others to view nuclear weapons as increasingly valuable for their national security. At the same time, the taboo against the use of nuclear weapons is being eroded by irresponsible rhetoric, including explicit threats of nuclear use in ongoing conflicts. 

The most egregious example has been President Putin threatening to use nuclear weapons over Ukraine. President Putin’s recent decision to test a nuclear-powered cruise missile in October was also deeply concerning, as was President Trump’s response in instructing the US Department of War to resume nuclear weapons testing.

As the world slips back into instability driven by a renewed arms race, strong nuclear arms control is more important than ever. These agreements promote openness and cooperation, reducing suspicion, fear, and tension while making dangerous misunderstandings and reckless escalation less likely.

The next few weeks represent the best opportunity to negotiate an extension to New START limits before the treaty expires, yet the prospects for agreement remain uncertain and the window for influence is rapidly closing.

History will judge the decisions taken in the coming weeks. Leaders must choose restraint over escalation, cooperation over confrontation and the security of humanity over the illusion of dominance.

The start of this new year is a chance to step back from the brink and follow a safer path.

With my thanks for your continued support and best wishes for the year ahead,

Juan Manuel Santos